Yards Edge Board
Season line vs season leader
Each dot is a player. Dots above the dashed line are priced likelier to finish #1 than to reach the line, which can't both be right. That gap is what a leader pair buys. Square-root scale so the long shots spread out.
Pace vs price
Above the dashed line, his current pace gives him a better chance to reach the line than the market does. Below it, a worse one. Larger dots are 20+ points apart. Pace is a second opinion, not a lock.
Press a dot to open that player's market on Polymarket. To zoom a chart, drag a box over it, pinch on a phone or trackpad, or use the + and − buttons. Double-click or press Reset to see everything again.
What a pair is
A pair is two bets on the same player, bought together, where at least one always wins. Because the pair always returns at least $1, if both bets cost less than $1 together, the difference is locked in.
Leader pair
- Yes, he reaches the season line (3,500+ passing, or 1,000+ rushing or receiving yards)
- No, he won't finish #1 in the league in that stat
If he finishes #1, he reached the line too, so the first bet pays. If he doesn't, the second pays. The only gap is a season where the league leader misses the line, which has never happened in a 17-game season.
Ladder pair
- Yes on a lower line for a player (say 1,000+)
- No on a higher line for the same player (say 1,100+)
Below 1,000, the No pays. Above 1,100, the Yes pays. In between, both pay. No gap at all.
Payout
| One bet wins | $1 |
| Both bets win | $2 |
55¢ + 43¢ = 98¢ for at least $1 back, so 2¢ is locked.
A No costs $1 minus that market's best Yes bid, which is how Polymarket prices it.
Leader pairs and pace
Single-player ladders
Leader market check
Each leader market has exactly one winner, so buying Yes on every listed player for under $1 in total would also be a lock.
Left out: injured
On IR, out, doubtful, PUP or suspended per Sleeper. Questionable players stay in, with a tag.
How to read this
- Locks are real only if you can fill both bets at the listed prices. Most books hold a few hundred dollars. Liquidity is the dollars you could trade within 5¢ of the best price on the thinner of the two bets, and pairs under the minimum you pick are hidden everywhere on the page. "Shares" is the size available at the very best price.
- Money is tied up until the season ends in January. A 2¢ lock on a 98¢ pair is about 2% over three months.
- Edges are before trading fees. These markets have fees enabled.
- Pace chance is a rough model. He keeps his current average with normal game-to-game swings, and players who've missed games are expected to miss some more. It ignores matchups, role changes and future injuries. Under 3 games played is a small sample.
- View only: this board places no orders and isn't financial advice. Prediction markets aren't legal everywhere.